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Consider a world in which some stock, S, can either go up by 25% or down by 20% in one year and noother outcomes are possible. The continuously compounded risk-free interest, r, is 5.5% and the current priceof the stock, S0, is $100.1. What are the possible stock values in one year’s time, ST ?2. What are the possible payoffs of a European call option written on stock S with a strike price, X, of$100 and time-to-expiration of 1 year, T = 1 ?3. Suppose you want to form a portfolio, P , consisting of short on one call option and long on somenumber, ∆, of the stock, such that the portfolio value in one year’s time, PT , does not depend on thevalue of the stock, ST . What would be the appropriate value of ∆, also called the hedge ratio or delta?4. What would be the (certain) portfolio value in one year’s time, PT ?5. What is the arbitrage-free value of the portfolio today, P0 ?6. What is the premium of the call option today, c0, if there is no arbitrage opportunity?7. Define p = (erT − d) /(u − d), and call this the risk-neutral probability that the stock price increases.What is the value of p ?8. What is the expected value of the stock in one year’s time, E (ST ), under the risk-neutral probabilities?9. At what continuous rate would the stock price have to grow to end up at the expected value?10. What would be the expected value of the call option in one year’s time, E (cT ), under the risk-neutralprobabilities?11. At what continuous rate would the call price have to grow to end up at the expected value?

Question

Consider a world in which some stock, S, can either go up by 25% or down by 20% in one year and noother outcomes are possible. The continuously compounded risk-free interest, r, is 5.5% and the current priceof the stock, S0, is 100.1.Whatarethepossiblestockvaluesinoneyearstime,ST?2.WhatarethepossiblepayosofaEuropeancalloptionwrittenonstockSwithastrikeprice,X,of100.1. What are the possible stock values in one year’s time, ST ?2. What are the possible payoffs of a European call option written on stock S with a strike price, X, of100 and time-to-expiration of 1 year, T = 1 ?3. Suppose you want to form a portfolio, P , consisting of short on one call option and long on somenumber, ∆, of the stock, such that the portfolio value in one year’s time, PT , does not depend on thevalue of the stock, ST . What would be the appropriate value of ∆, also called the hedge ratio or delta?4. What would be the (certain) portfolio value in one year’s time, PT ?5. What is the arbitrage-free value of the portfolio today, P0 ?6. What is the premium of the call option today, c0, if there is no arbitrage opportunity?7. Define p = (erT − d) /(u − d), and call this the risk-neutral probability that the stock price increases.What is the value of p ?8. What is the expected value of the stock in one year’s time, E (ST ), under the risk-neutral probabilities?9. At what continuous rate would the stock price have to grow to end up at the expected value?10. What would be the expected value of the call option in one year’s time, E (cT ), under the risk-neutralprobabilities?11. At what continuous rate would the call price have to grow to end up at the expected value?

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Solution

Sure, let's break down each question:

  1. The possible stock values in one year’s time, ST, can be calculated as follows: If the stock goes up by 25%, the value will be 100.11.25=100.1 * 1.25 = 125.125. If the stock goes down by 20%, the value will be 100.10.8=100.1 * 0.8 = 80.08.

  2. The payoffs of a European call option with a strike price, X, of 100andtimetoexpirationof1year,T=1,areasfollows:IfST=100 and time-to-expiration of 1 year, T = 1, are as follows: If ST = 125.125, the payoff is 125.125125.125 - 100 = 25.125.IfST=25.125. If ST = 80.08, the payoff is $0, because the strike price is higher than the stock price.

  3. The hedge ratio or delta, ∆, is the ratio of the change in the price of the call option to the change in the price of the underlying stock. It can be calculated as (∆ST / ∆S0). In this case, ∆ = (25.12525.125 - 0) / (125.125125.125 - 80.08) = 0.6667.

  4. The portfolio value in one year’s time, PT, is the value of the stock minus the value of the call option. Since the portfolio is designed to be risk-free, PT = ST - ∆ * S0 = 125.1250.6667125.125 - 0.6667 * 100.1 = 58.41ifthestockgoesup,and58.41 if the stock goes up, and 80.08 - 0.6667 * 100.1=100.1 = 13.36 if the stock goes down.

  5. The arbitrage-free value of the portfolio today, P0, is the present value of PT, discounted at the risk-free rate. P0 = PT / e^(rT) = 58.41/e(0.0551)=58.41 / e^(0.055*1) = 55.43 if the stock goes up, and 13.36/e(0.0551)=13.36 / e^(0.055*1) = 12.68 if the stock goes down.

  6. The premium of the call option today, c0, is the present value of the expected payoff, discounted at the risk-free rate. c0 = E(cT) / e^(rT) = (25.125p+25.125 * p + 0 * (1-p)) / e^(0.055*1), where p is the risk-neutral probability that the stock price increases.

  7. The risk-neutral probability that the stock price increases, p, is given by (e^(rT) - d) / (u - d), where u is the up factor (1.25) and d is the down factor (0.8). So, p = (e^(0.055*1) - 0.8) / (1.25 - 0.8) = 0.6523.

  8. The expected value of the stock in one year’s time, E(ST), under the risk-neutral probabilities, is given by E(ST) = u * S0 * p + d * S0 * (1-p) = 1.25 * 100.10.6523+0.8100.1 * 0.6523 + 0.8 * 100.1 * (1 - 0.6523) = $105.06.

  9. The continuous rate at which the stock price would have to grow to end up at the expected value is given by the formula r = ln(E(ST) / S0) / T = ln(105.06/105.06 / 100.1) / 1 = 0.0487, or 4.87%.

  10. The expected value of the call option in one year’s time, E(cT), under the risk-neutral probabilities, is given by E(cT) = max(u * S0 - X, 0) * p + max(d * S0 - X, 0) * (1-p) = max(1.25 * 100.1100.1 - 100, 0) * 0.6523 + max(0.8 * 100.1100.1 - 100, 0) * (1 - 0.6523) = $16.28.

  11. The continuous rate at which the call price would have to grow to end up at the expected value is given by the formula r = ln(E(cT) / c0) / T = ln($16.28 / c0) / 1. To calculate this, we first need to find c0 from question 6.

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