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Assume the following unrealistic assumptions The interest rate is equal to zero Investors are risk-neutral (they don’t care about risk) • That is the price of assets that will give $100 with a probability of 50% and $0 with the probability of 50% will be... • Now assume that a stock is traded today (28/02) for $9. • What will be the price of a call option with an exercise price of $10 that expires at the end of May (notation C10May), if the price of the stock (underlining asset) can increase or decrease by $2 until the expiration date with equal probabilities? • Will the value of the call option increase or decrease if the price of the stock can increase or decrease by $3 until the expiration date?

Question

Assume the following unrealistic assumptions The interest rate is equal to zero Investors are risk-neutral (they don’t care about risk) • That is the price of assets that will give 100withaprobabilityof50100 with a probability of 50% and 0 with the probability of 50% will be...

• Now assume that a stock is traded today (28/02) for 9.Whatwillbethepriceofacalloptionwithanexercisepriceof9. • What will be the price of a call option with an exercise price of 10 that expires at the end of May (notation C10May), if the price of the stock (underlining asset) can increase or decrease by 2untiltheexpirationdatewithequalprobabilities?Willthevalueofthecalloptionincreaseordecreaseifthepriceofthestockcanincreaseordecreaseby2 until the expiration date with equal probabilities? • Will the value of the call option increase or decrease if the price of the stock can increase or decrease by 3 until the expiration date?

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Solution

Given the assumptions, the price of assets that will give 100withaprobabilityof50100 with a probability of 50% and 0 with a probability of 50% will be $50. This is because investors are risk-neutral and the expected value of the asset is simply the sum of the possible outcomes weighted by their probabilities.

Now, let's consider the call option. A call option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy an asset at a specified price (the exercise price) on or before a specified date (the expiration date). If the price of the underlying asset is below the exercise price at the expiration date, the option is worthless. If the price of the underlying asset is above the exercise price, the option is worth the difference between the two prices.

In this case, the exercise price of the call option is 10.Thepriceoftheunderlyingstocktodayis10. The price of the underlying stock today is 9. The stock price can either increase by 2to2 to 11 or decrease by 2to2 to 7 by the end of May. If the stock price increases to 11,thecalloptionwillbeworth11, the call option will be worth 1 (1111 - 10). If the stock price decreases to 7,thecalloptionwillbeworthless.Giventhatbothoutcomesareequallylikely,theexpectedvalueofthecalloptionis7, the call option will be worthless. Given that both outcomes are equally likely, the expected value of the call option is 0.50 (10.5+1 * 0.5 + 0 * 0.5).

If the price of the stock can increase or decrease by 3untiltheexpirationdate,thestockpricecaneitherincreaseto3 until the expiration date, the stock price can either increase to 12 or decrease to 6.Ifthestockpriceincreasesto6. If the stock price increases to 12, the call option will be worth 2(2 (12 - 10).Ifthestockpricedecreasesto10). If the stock price decreases to 6, the call option will be worthless. Given that both outcomes are equally likely, the expected value of the call option is 1(1 (2 * 0.5 + $0 * 0.5).

Therefore, the value of the call option will increase if the price of the stock can increase or decrease by $3 until the expiration date.

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