The chance of getting a particular disease sometime during your lifetime is estimated at 1 in 20.Smoking increases the risk of developing the disease during your lifetime by 20%.How many people out of a group of 1000 smokers would you expect to get the disease sometime during their lifetime?
Question
The chance of getting a particular disease sometime during your lifetime is estimated at 1 in 20.Smoking increases the risk of developing the disease during your lifetime by 20%.How many people out of a group of 1000 smokers would you expect to get the disease sometime during their lifetime?
Solution
First, let's determine the base rate of the disease in a population of 1000 people. If the chance of getting the disease is 1 in 20, then in a group of 1000 people, we would expect 1000/20 = 50 people to get the disease.
Next, we need to calculate the increased risk due to smoking. A 20% increase on the base rate of 50 people means an additional 20/100 * 50 = 10 people.
So, in a group of 1000 smokers, we would expect 50 (base rate) + 10 (increased risk due to smoking) = 60 people to get the disease sometime during their lifetime.
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