For safety reasons, four different alarm systems were installed in the vault containing the safety deposit boxes at a Beverly Hills bank. Each of the four systems detects theft with a probability of 0.99independently of the others.What is the probability that when a theft occurs, all four systems will detect it? (0.99)4 (0.99) * 4 (0.01)4 4 * (0.01) * (0.99)3 4 * (0.99) * (0.01)3
Question
For safety reasons, four different alarm systems were installed in the vault containing the safety deposit boxes at a Beverly Hills bank. Each of the four systems detects theft with a probability of 0.99independently of the others.What is the probability that when a theft occurs, all four systems will detect it? (0.99)4 (0.99) * 4 (0.01)4 4 * (0.01) * (0.99)3 4 * (0.99) * (0.01)3
Solution
The probability that all four systems will detect a theft, given that each system independently has a 0.99 probability of detection, is calculated by multiplying the probabilities together. This is because the events are independent, meaning the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of the other events.
So, the calculation is as follows:
0.99 (probability of first system detecting theft) * 0.99 (probability of second system detecting theft) * 0.99 (probability of third system detecting theft) * 0.99 (probability of fourth system detecting theft)
= (0.99)^4
= 0.96059601
So, the probability that all four systems will detect the theft is approximately 0.96, or 96%.
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