fter your complaint about their service, a representative of an insurancecompany promised to call you "between 7 and 9 this evening." Assumethat this means that the time T of the call is uniformly distributed in thespecied interval.(a) Compute the probability that the call arrives between 8:00 and 8:20.(b) At 8:30, the call still hasn't arrived. What is the probability that itarrives in the next 10 minutes?(c) Assume that you know in advance that the call will last exactly 1hour. From 9 to 9:30, there is a game show on TV that you wantedto watch. Let M be the amount of time of the show that you missbecause of the call. Compute the expected value of M .
Question
fter your complaint about their service, a representative of an insurancecompany promised to call you "between 7 and 9 this evening." Assumethat this means that the time T of the call is uniformly distributed in thespecied interval.(a) Compute the probability that the call arrives between 8:00 and 8:20.(b) At 8:30, the call still hasn't arrived. What is the probability that itarrives in the next 10 minutes?(c) Assume that you know in advance that the call will last exactly 1hour. From 9 to 9:30, there is a game show on TV that you wantedto watch. Let M be the amount of time of the show that you missbecause of the call. Compute the expected value of M .
Solution
(a) The call can arrive anytime between 7 and 9, which is a 2-hour or 120-minute window. The probability of the call arriving in any specific time frame is the length of that time frame divided by the total time window. So, the probability of the call arriving between 8:00 and 8:20 (a 20-minute window) is 20/120 = 1/6.
(b) If the call hasn't arrived by 8:30, the remaining time window is from 8:30 to 9:00, a 30-minute window. The probability of the call arriving in the next 10 minutes is 10/30 = 1/3.
(c) If the call lasts exactly 1 hour, the earliest it can start in order for you to not miss any of the game show is 8:30. If the call starts at any time T between 7:00 and 8:30, you will miss the entire game show, so the expected value of M is 1 hour. If the call starts at any time T between 8:30 and 9:00, you will miss the first T-8:30 minutes of the game show. The expected value of M is therefore the integral from 8:30 to 9:00 of (T-8:30) dT, divided by the length of the time window (30 minutes). This integral evaluates to 15 minutes. So, the overall expected value of M is (1 hour * 1.5 hours + 15 minutes * 0.5 hours) / 2 hours = 45 minutes.
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