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Tick all of the following statements that you think are true (remember that you lose points by ticking a  statement that is false)Group of answer choicesIn the context of uncertainty, ambiguity means not knowing which option to chooseA bad decision can have a good outcome.You can give a meaningful probability to the outcome of an uncertain event even when you have no frequency data (observations/trials) to base it on.A good outcome implies a good decision.The Frame is one of the elements of the Decision Basis.On average, actual O&G project costs, completion times and productivity are similar to predictions.The decision-making methodology can account for qualitative objectivesChoices (or Alternatives) is one of the elements of the Decision Basis.

Question

Tick all of the following statements that you think are true (remember that you lose points by ticking a  statement that is false)Group of answer choicesIn the context of uncertainty, ambiguity means not knowing which option to chooseA bad decision can have a good outcome.You can give a meaningful probability to the outcome of an uncertain event even when you have no frequency data (observations/trials) to base it on.A good outcome implies a good decision.The Frame is one of the elements of the Decision Basis.On average, actual O&G project costs, completion times and productivity are similar to predictions.The decision-making methodology can account for qualitative objectivesChoices (or Alternatives) is one of the elements of the Decision Basis.

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Solution

  1. In the context of uncertainty, ambiguity means not knowing which option to choose - True. Ambiguity in uncertainty refers to the situation where the probabilities of outcomes are not known or when it is not clear which option is the best.

  2. A bad decision can have a good outcome - True. Sometimes, even a decision that was not well thought out or was based on incorrect information can still lead to a positive outcome by chance.

  3. You can give a meaningful probability to the outcome of an uncertain event even when you have no frequency data (observations/trials) to base it on - True. This is the basis of subjective probability, where the probability is based on the individual's personal judgment about an event.

  4. A good outcome implies a good decision - False. A good outcome can be the result of luck or other factors, not necessarily a good decision.

  5. The Frame is one of the elements of the Decision Basis - True. The frame refers to the way a decision problem is presented or perceived.

  6. On average, actual O&G project costs, completion times and productivity are similar to predictions - False. In many cases, actual costs and completion times can be significantly different from initial predictions due to various factors such as unforeseen complications, changes in market conditions, etc.

  7. The decision-making methodology can account for qualitative objectives - True. Decision-making methodologies can incorporate both quantitative and qualitative objectives.

  8. Choices (or Alternatives) is one of the elements of the Decision Basis - True. The decision basis includes the different options or alternatives that are available for decision making.

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