Which of the forecasting models would you strongly recommend to predict the GDP per capita of INDIA (assuming that there is no seasonal flucation in GDP per capita)?Answer choicesSelect only one optionREVISITSimple Exponential SmoothingHolt's linear trendHolt-wintersNaïve
Question
Which of the forecasting models would you strongly recommend to predict the GDP per capita of INDIA (assuming that there is no seasonal flucation in GDP per capita)?Answer choicesSelect only one optionREVISITSimple Exponential SmoothingHolt's linear trendHolt-wintersNaïve
Solution
Given the assumption that there is no seasonal fluctuation in India's GDP per capita, the best forecasting model to use would be Holt's linear trend model. This model is particularly useful when there is a linear trend in the data, and it can capture the direction and magnitude of the trend.
Here's why:
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Simple Exponential Smoothing and Naïve methods are best for data with no trend or seasonal components, which is not our case.
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Holt-Winters method is used when the data has both a trend and a seasonal component. But the problem statement specifies that there is no seasonal fluctuation in the GDP per capita of India.
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Holt's linear trend method, on the other hand, is designed to capture the trend in the data, making it the most suitable choice for this scenario.
So, Holt's linear trend would be the recommended forecasting model to predict the GDP per capita of India.
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