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Suppose that a biased coin has a probability of 0.45 of coming up tails.If the coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting tails exactly twice?

Question

Suppose that a biased coin has a probability of 0.45 of coming up tails.If the coin is tossed three times, what is the probability of getting tails exactly twice?

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Solution

To find the probability of getting tails exactly twice in three tosses of a biased coin, we can use the binomial probability formula.

The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k) = C(n, k) * (p^k) * ((1-p)^(n-k))

Where:

  • P(X=k) is the probability of k successes in n trials
  • C(n, k) is the number of combinations of n items taken k at a time
  • p is the probability of success on any given trial
  • n is the number of trials
  • k is the number of successes

In this case, we want to find P(X=2), the probability of 2 tails in 3 tosses. We know that:

  • n = 3 (the number of tosses)
  • k = 2 (the number of tails we want)
  • p = 0.45 (the probability of getting tails)

Step 1: Calculate C(n, k)

C(n, k) = C(3, 2) = 3! / [(3-2)! * 2!] = 3

Step 2: Calculate p^k

p^k = (0.45)^2 = 0.2025

Step 3: Calculate (1-p)^(n-k)

(1-p)^(n-k) = (1-0.45)^(3-2) = 0.55

Step 4: Substitute these values into the binomial probability formula

P(X=2) = C(n, k) * (p^k) * ((1-p)^(n-k)) = 3 * 0.2025 * 0.55 = 0.3341 (rounded to four decimal places)

So, the probability of getting tails exactly twice in three tosses of the biased coin is approximately 0.3341 or 33.41%.

This problem has been solved

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