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A coin is biased so that the probability it will come up tails is 0.46. The coin is tossed three times.  Consider a success to be tails.  Using the binomial probability formula, what is the probability the exactly two of the three tosses are tails?

Question

A coin is biased so that the probability it will come up tails is 0.46. The coin is tossed three times.  Consider a success to be tails.  Using the binomial probability formula, what is the probability the exactly two of the three tosses are tails?

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Solution

To solve this problem, we will use the binomial probability formula, which is:

P(X=k) = C(n, k) * (p^k) * ((1-p)^(n-k))

where:

  • P(X=k) is the probability of k successes in n trials
  • C(n, k) is the combination of n items taken k at a time
  • p is the probability of success on a single trial
  • n is the number of trials
  • k is the number of successes

In this case, we want to find the probability that exactly 2 out of 3 tosses are tails. So, n=3 (the number of tosses), k=2 (the number of successful tosses we want), and p=0.46 (the probability of getting tails on a single toss).

First, calculate C(n, k). This is the number of combinations of n items taken k at a time. The formula for this is:

C(n, k) = n! / [k!(n-k)!]

where "!" denotes factorial, which is the product of all positive integers up to that number. So,

C(3, 2) = 3! / [2!(3-2)!] = 6 / [2*1] = 3

Next, calculate p^k, which is the probability of success on a single trial raised to the power of the number of successes. So,

p^k = 0.46^2 = 0.2116

Then, calculate (1-p)^(n-k), which is the probability of failure on a single trial raised to the power of the number of failures. So,

(1-p)^(n-k) = (1-0.46)^(3-2) = 0.54^1 = 0.54

Finally, substitute these values back into the binomial probability formula to get:

P(X=2) = C(3, 2) * (0.46^2) * (0.54^1) = 3 * 0.2116 * 0.54 = 0.342

So, the probability that exactly 2 out of 3 tosses are tails is approximately 0.342, or 34.2%.

This problem has been solved

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