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You are a portfolio manager running the AUD/USD options book for your bank. You have reviewed the risk profile of your portolio and have become concerned about a short vega position building up around 3 month maturity which approximates strikes circa. 22-28 delta on the AUD/USD downside coupled with a buildup of a similar long vega position for an AUD/USD topside move around the same dates and deltas. You are concerned that recent global economic forecasts point to a substantially lower AUD/USD rate in the coming months - and fear that other institutions may have a similar risk profile on their portfolio. This suggests that any downward move in the AUD/USD rate will be fast due to cascading stop loss orders hitting the market. The likelihood of a move higher for the AUD/USD seems unlikely at this stage. Based on these views, a downward move in the AUD/USD rate would likely be accompanied by a ? in implied volatility rates across the curve. The most appropriate protective strategy for your vega position might be to ? with a maturity around ? and delta(s) of approximately ? . As a further consequence, you expect to see a substantial ? in short dated (1 and 2 week maturity) implied volatility rates reflecting the higher market demand for ? protection due to higher actual volatility in the AUD/USD rate.

Question

You are a portfolio manager running the AUD/USD options book for your bank. You have reviewed the risk profile of your portolio and have become concerned about a short vega position building up around 3 month maturity which approximates strikes circa. 22-28 delta on the AUD/USD downside coupled with a buildup of a similar long vega position for an AUD/USD topside move around the same dates and deltas. You are concerned that recent global economic forecasts point to a substantially lower AUD/USD rate in the coming months - and fear that other institutions may have a similar risk profile on their portfolio. This suggests that any downward move in the AUD/USD rate will be fast due to cascading stop loss orders hitting the market. The likelihood of a move higher for the AUD/USD seems unlikely at this stage. Based on these views, a downward move in the AUD/USD rate would likely be accompanied by a ? in implied volatility rates across the curve. The most appropriate protective strategy for your vega position might be to ? with a maturity around ? and delta(s) of approximately ? . As a further consequence, you expect to see a substantial ? in short dated (1 and 2 week maturity) implied volatility rates reflecting the higher market demand for ? protection due to higher actual volatility in the AUD/USD rate.

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Solution

Based on your views, a downward move in the AUD/USD rate would likely be accompanied by an increase in implied volatility rates across the curve. The most appropriate protective strategy for your vega position might be to buy vega (i.e., buy options) with a maturity around 3 months and delta(s) of approximately 22-28. As a further consequence, you expect to see a substantial increase in short dated (1 and 2 week maturity) implied volatility rates reflecting the higher market demand for downside protection due to higher actual volatility in the AUD/USD rate.

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