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A CPM/PERT project network with probabilistic activity times includes an activity with a most likely time of 18 days, an optimistic time of 5 days, and a pessimistic time of 23 days. The mean time for this activity is  (round to the nearest whole number)

Question

A CPM/PERT project network with probabilistic activity times includes an activity with a most likely time of 18 days, an optimistic time of 5 days, and a pessimistic time of 23 days. The mean time for this activity is  (round to the nearest whole number)

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Solution

The mean or expected time for an activity in a CPM/PERT project network can be calculated using the formula:

Expected Time (TE) = (Optimistic Time (TO) + 4*Most Likely Time (TM) + Pessimistic Time (TP)) / 6

Given in the problem:

TO = 5 days TM = 18 days TP = 23 days

Substitute these values into the formula:

TE = (5 + 4*18 + 23) / 6 TE = (5 + 72 + 23) / 6 TE = 100 / 6 TE = 16.67 days

Rounding to the nearest whole number, the mean time for this activity is approximately 17 days.

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