Richardson, Teoh, and Wysocki (2004) posit in their study that:Security regulators and the business press have often alleged that firms and analystsare involved in an “earnings-guidance game”. These critics claim that analysts issuesystematically optimistic earnings forecasts at the start of the fiscal period and then“walk down” their estimates to a level the firm can beat on the formal earningsannouncement.Source: Richardson, S., Teoh, S. H., and Wysocki, P. D. 2004. The walk-down tobeatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives.Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 21 (4): 885-924.Requirements:(i) Can you explain what management earnings guidance walkdown is? Why domanagers choose to conduct the walkdown? Further, why do they often manageto walkdown analysts’ forecasts?
Question
Richardson, Teoh, and Wysocki (2004) posit in their study that:Security regulators and the business press have often alleged that firms and analystsare involved in an “earnings-guidance game”. These critics claim that analysts issuesystematically optimistic earnings forecasts at the start of the fiscal period and then“walk down” their estimates to a level the firm can beat on the formal earningsannouncement.Source: Richardson, S., Teoh, S. H., and Wysocki, P. D. 2004. The walk-down tobeatable analyst forecasts: The role of equity issuance and insider trading incentives.Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 21 (4): 885-924.Requirements:(i) Can you explain what management earnings guidance walkdown is? Why domanagers choose to conduct the walkdown? Further, why do they often manageto walkdown analysts’ forecasts?
Solution
Management earnings guidance walkdown refers to the practice where firms and analysts start with an optimistic earnings forecast at the beginning of a fiscal period, and then gradually lower, or "walk down," these estimates to a level that the firm can exceed when they formally announce their earnings.
Managers choose to conduct the walkdown for several reasons. Firstly, it helps to manage the expectations of investors and the market. By starting with a high forecast, they can create initial enthusiasm and interest in the company's stock. Then, by gradually lowering the forecast, they can ensure that the actual earnings exceed the forecast, which can boost investor confidence and potentially drive up the stock price.
Secondly, the walkdown can be used as a tool to avoid negative surprises. If the actual earnings are lower than the initial forecast, it can lead to disappointment and a drop in the stock price. By walking down the forecast, managers can avoid this scenario.
Managers often manage to walk down analysts' forecasts because they have more information about the company's financial situation and future prospects. They can use this information to influence analysts' forecasts, either directly or indirectly. For example, they might release certain information that leads analysts to revise their forecasts downwards. Or they might subtly signal that the initial forecast was too optimistic, prompting analysts to lower their estimates.
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