3. A medical company hired a Machine Learning Specialist to create a predictive model that tells whether a patient will develop cardiovascular disease. The company is more worried about false negatives as it can delay treatments, potentially causing severe implications later on to patient’s health. Which metric should be given more importance by the ML-Specialist?PrecisionRecallFalse Positive RateRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE)
Question
- A medical company hired a Machine Learning Specialist to create a predictive model that tells whether a patient will develop cardiovascular disease. The company is more worried about false negatives as it can delay treatments, potentially causing severe implications later on to patient’s health. Which metric should be given more importance by the ML-Specialist?PrecisionRecallFalse Positive RateRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE)
Solution
In this case, the Machine Learning Specialist should give more importance to the Recall metric.
Here's why:
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The company is more worried about false negatives. A false negative is when the model predicts that a patient will not develop cardiovascular disease, but in reality, they do. This is a serious issue because it can delay treatments, potentially causing severe implications later on to patient’s health.
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Recall (also known as Sensitivity or True Positive Rate) is a metric that measures the proportion of actual positives that are correctly identified as such. In other words, it measures the ability of a model to find all the relevant cases within a dataset. The higher the recall, the fewer false negatives a model will have.
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The other metrics like Precision, False Positive Rate, and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are not as relevant in this case. Precision is about the accuracy of positive predictions and False Positive Rate is about the fraction of negative instances that are incorrectly classified as positive. RMSE is a measure of how spread out the residuals are, in other words, it tells you how concentrated the data is around the line of best fit.
So, given the company's concern about minimizing false negatives, Recall should be the metric of focus.
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