A computer software firm has experienced the demand for their software package as shown below.Month Demand (D)1 562 613 554 705 666 65Using 𝛂 = 0.4, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 3? (Assume F1 = 56) (answer in whole number)
Question
A computer software firm has experienced the demand for their software package as shown below.Month Demand (D)1 562 613 554 705 666 65Using 𝛂 = 0.4, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for month 3? (Assume F1 = 56) (answer in whole number)
Solution
To calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for month 3, we use the formula:
Ft = αDt-1 + (1 - α)Ft-1
where: Ft is the forecast for month t, Dt-1 is the demand in the previous month (t-1), Ft-1 is the forecast for the previous month (t-1), and α is the smoothing constant.
Given that α = 0.4, D2 = 61 (demand in month 2), and F2 = 56 (forecast for month 2), we can substitute these values into the formula to get:
F3 = 0.4 * 61 + (1 - 0.4) * 56 = 24.4 + 33.6 = 58
So, the exponential smoothing forecast for month 3 is 58.
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