A sales consultant for Herron Pharmaceuticals wished to confirm that their packet of 24 paracetamol tablets was cheaper at the retail level than their rival product. The sales consultant collected price data from two independent samples, of size 27 for Herron and 18 for the rival company. These yielded an average and variance for the retail price of Herron's product of 399 cents and 76 cents squared respectively, and 402 cents and 61 cents squared for the rival. Under the usual assumptions, determine a 95% confidence interval for the price difference (use Herron minus rival) stating only the upper limit of the interval in cents (round to the nearest whole number).
Question
A sales consultant for Herron Pharmaceuticals wished to confirm that their packet of 24 paracetamol tablets was cheaper at the retail level than their rival product. The sales consultant collected price data from two independent samples, of size 27 for Herron and 18 for the rival company. These yielded an average and variance for the retail price of Herron's product of 399 cents and 76 cents squared respectively, and 402 cents and 61 cents squared for the rival. Under the usual assumptions, determine a 95% confidence interval for the price difference (use Herron minus rival) stating only the upper limit of the interval in cents (round to the nearest whole number).
Solution
To calculate the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the price difference, we first need to calculate the standard error of the difference.
The formula for the standard error of the difference between two means is:
SE = sqrt[(s1^2/n1) + (s2^2/n2)]
where s1 and s2 are the standard deviations of the two samples (which are the square roots of the variances), and n1 and n2 are the sizes of the two samples.
Substituting the given values:
SE = sqrt[(76/27) + (61/18)] = sqrt[2.81 + 3.39] = sqrt[6.20] = 2.49
Next, we need to calculate the difference between the two means:
Difference = Mean1 - Mean2 = 399 - 402 = -3
The formula for a 95% confidence interval is:
CI = Difference ± (Z*SE)
where Z is the Z-score for the desired confidence level. For a 95% confidence level, the Z-score is approximately 1.96.
Substituting the calculated and given values:
CI = -3 ± (1.96*2.49)
To find the upper limit of the confidence interval, we add the product of the Z-score and the standard error to the difference:
Upper limit = -3 + (1.96*2.49) = -3 + 4.88 = 1.88
Rounding to the nearest whole number, the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for the price difference is 2 cents.
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