The state lottery board is examining the machine that randomly picks the lottery numbers. On each trial, the machine outputs a ball with one of the digits 0 through 9 on it. (The ball is then replaced in the machine.) The lottery board tested the machine for 500 trials and got the following results.Outcome 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Number of Trials 41 40 50 64 59 43 51 52 50 50Fill in the table below. Round your answers to the nearest thousandth.(a) Assuming that the machine is fair, compute the theoretical probability of getting a 1.(b) From these results, compute the experimental probability of getting a 1.(c) Assuming that the machine is fair, choose the statement below that is true:With a large number of trials, there might be a difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities, but the difference should be small.With a large number of trials, there must be a large difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.With a large number of trials, there must be no difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.
Question
The state lottery board is examining the machine that randomly picks the lottery numbers. On each trial, the machine outputs a ball with one of the digits 0 through 9 on it. (The ball is then replaced in the machine.) The lottery board tested the machine for 500 trials and got the following results.Outcome 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Number of Trials 41 40 50 64 59 43 51 52 50 50Fill in the table below. Round your answers to the nearest thousandth.(a) Assuming that the machine is fair, compute the theoretical probability of getting a 1.(b) From these results, compute the experimental probability of getting a 1.(c) Assuming that the machine is fair, choose the statement below that is true:With a large number of trials, there might be a difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities, but the difference should be small.With a large number of trials, there must be a large difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.With a large number of trials, there must be no difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities.
Solution
(a) The theoretical probability of getting a 1, assuming the machine is fair, is 1/10 = 0.1. This is because there are 10 possible outcomes (0 through 9), and each is equally likely if the machine is fair.
(b) The experimental probability of getting a 1 is calculated by dividing the number of trials that resulted in a 1 by the total number of trials. In this case, that's 40/500 = 0.08.
(c) The correct statement is: "With a large number of trials, there might be a difference between the experimental and theoretical probabilities, but the difference should be small." This is because, while probability theory predicts what should happen in an ideal situation, actual results can vary due to chance. However, the law of large numbers states that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability should get closer to the theoretical probability.
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