Which of the following is the correct formula for the Simple Exponential Smoothing model?
Question
Which of the following is the correct formula for the Simple Exponential Smoothing model?
Solution
The Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) model is a time series forecasting method for univariate data without a trend or seasonality. The formula for the Simple Exponential Smoothing model is:
St = α * Yt + (1 - α) * St-1
Where:
- St is the smoothed statistic (i.e., the forecast) for time period t
- α is the smoothing factor, a value between 0 and 1
- Yt is the actual value at time period t
- St-1 is the smoothed statistic for the previous time period (t-1)
Similar Questions
How is the smoothed value calculated for every period in a simple exponential smoothing?Group of answer choicesIt is the sum of the observation itself and the smoothed value one period ago.It is the weighted sum of the observation itself and the smoothed value one period ago.It is the average of the observation itself and the smoothed value one period ago.It is the difference between the observation itself and the smoothed value one period ago.
When using the exponential smoothing technique to smooth a series the value of the smoothing coefficient (W) should be between -1 and 1 True False
Consider the following time series: Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand 15 24 26 33 20 22 27 20 Calculate the exponentially smoothed value for period 2 using W (smoothing coefficient) = 0.4. Express your answer without rounding.
In exponential smoothing the value of the smoothing coefficient (W) should be near one if you would like to give more weights to the most recent observations. True False
Given a prior forecast demand value of 1,000, a related actual demand value of 1100, and a smoothing constant alpha of 0.2, what is the exponential smoothing forecast value?
Upgrade your grade with Knowee
Get personalized homework help. Review tough concepts in more detail, or go deeper into your topic by exploring other relevant questions.