A researcher would like to estimate p, the proportion of U.S. adults who support recognizing civil unions between gay or lesbian couples. Due to a limited budget, the researcher obtained opinions from a random sample of only 2,222 U.S. adults.With this sample size, the researcher can be 95% confident that the obtained sample proportion will differ from the true proportion (p) by no more than which of the following percentages (answers are rounded)?Group of answer choices2.1%0.75%3%0.04%
Question
A researcher would like to estimate p, the proportion of U.S. adults who support recognizing civil unions between gay or lesbian couples. Due to a limited budget, the researcher obtained opinions from a random sample of only 2,222 U.S. adults.With this sample size, the researcher can be 95% confident that the obtained sample proportion will differ from the true proportion (p) by no more than which of the following percentages (answers are rounded)?Group of answer choices2.1%0.75%3%0.04%
Solution
To answer this question, we need to use the formula for the margin of error for a proportion, which is:
E = Z * sqrt[(p(1-p))/n]
Where: E = margin of error Z = Z-score (for a 95% confidence level, Z = 1.96) p = sample proportion n = sample size
However, in this case, we don't know the sample proportion (p). When we don't know p, we can use 0.5 as a conservative estimate that maximizes the possible error. So, the formula becomes:
E = Z * sqrt[(0.5(1-0.5))/n] E = 1.96 * sqrt[(0.5*0.5)/2222] E = 1.96 * sqrt[0.25/2222] E = 1.96 * sqrt[0.00011241] E = 1.96 * 0.0106 E = 0.02076
So, the researcher can be 95% confident that the obtained sample proportion will differ from the true proportion (p) by no more than 2.1%. Therefore, the answer is 2.1%.
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