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The lifetime t (in weeks) of a light bulb can be defined by the force of mortality 0.25t2 +0.4t.A hotel has five hundred rooms, and has just opened with four new light bulbs in eachroom. Light bulbs are checked exactly once a week and all defective bulbs are replacedimmediately.(a) Calculate the number of bulbs that the hotel would expect to replace at the end ofeach of the first, second, and third week of opening

Question

The lifetime t (in weeks) of a light bulb can be defined by the force of mortality 0.25t2 +0.4t.A hotel has five hundred rooms, and has just opened with four new light bulbs in eachroom. Light bulbs are checked exactly once a week and all defective bulbs are replacedimmediately.(a) Calculate the number of bulbs that the hotel would expect to replace at the end ofeach of the first, second, and third week of opening

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Solution

To solve this problem, we need to calculate the probability of a bulb failing in the first, second, and third week. The force of mortality function given is 0.25t^2 + 0.4t. This function gives the instantaneous rate of failure at time t.

(a) For the first week (t=1), the force of mortality is 0.25(1)^2 + 0.4(1) = 0.65. This is the probability of a bulb failing in the first week.

The hotel has 500 rooms with 4 bulbs each, so there are 500*4 = 2000 bulbs.

The expected number of bulbs to fail in the first week is therefore 2000 * 0.65 = 1300 bulbs.

(b) For the second week (t=2), the force of mortality is 0.25(2)^2 + 0.4(2) = 1.8. This is the probability of a bulb failing in the second week.

The expected number of bulbs to fail in the second week is therefore 2000 * 1.8 = 3600 bulbs.

(c) For the third week (t=3), the force of mortality is 0.25(3)^2 + 0.4(3) = 3.05. This is the probability of a bulb failing in the third week.

The expected number of bulbs to fail in the third week is therefore 2000 * 3.05 = 6100 bulbs.

So, the hotel would expect to replace 1300 bulbs at the end of the first week, 3600 bulbs at the end of the second week, and 6100 bulbs at the end of the third week.

Please note that these calculations assume that the force of mortality is the same for all bulbs, which may not be the case in reality. Also, the calculations do not take into account the fact that bulbs that fail are replaced, which would reduce the number of bulbs that can fail in subsequent weeks.

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