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A model where the current value of a variable depends upon only the values that the variable took in previous periods plus an error term is called:Group of answer choicesA periodic lag modelAn autoregressive modelAn autoregressive integrated moving average modelAn autoregressive moving average model

Question

A model where the current value of a variable depends upon only the values that the variable took in previous periods plus an error term is called:Group of answer choicesA periodic lag modelAn autoregressive modelAn autoregressive integrated moving average modelAn autoregressive moving average model

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Solution 1

The correct answer is: An autoregressive model.

This model is a type of random process; as such, it is often used to model and forecast time series data. Autoregressive models have the characteristic that they "regress" on their own previous values. That is, the value of the variable at a certain time depends on its values at previous times. The term "autoregressive" describes this property, which can be associated with the kind of "memory" that these models possess.

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Solution 2

The correct answer is: An autoregressive model.

This model is a type of random process; as such, it is often used to model and forecast time series data. Autoregressive models have the characteristic that they use a combination of past values of the variable to predict its future values. The term 'autoregressive' indicates that it is a regression of the variable against itself. Thus, an autoregressive model of order p can be written as:

Yt = c + φ1Yt-1 + φ2Yt-2 + ... + φpYt-p + Et

where:

  • Yt is the value of the variable at time t
  • c is a constant
  • φ1, φ2, ..., φp are the parameters of the model
  • Et is white noise.

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