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At a local fair, there is a game that offers cash prizes. To play the game, a colored ball is drawn at random from a big box and if the ball is gold, you win cash money. (The ball is put back in the box each time the game is played.) In the box, there are 9 gold balls out of a total of 300 balls. Suppose 100 people play the game.(a)What is the probability that exactly 4 people draw a gold ball? Calculate this probability using a binomial distribution. Round your answers to four decimal places.(b)Use the Poisson distribution to approximate the probability that exactly 4 people draw a gold ball. Round your answer to four decimal places.

Question

At a local fair, there is a game that offers cash prizes. To play the game, a colored ball is drawn at random from a big box and if the ball is gold, you win cash money. (The ball is put back in the box each time the game is played.) In the box, there are 9 gold balls out of a total of 300 balls. Suppose 100 people play the game.(a)What is the probability that exactly 4 people draw a gold ball? Calculate this probability using a binomial distribution. Round your answers to four decimal places.(b)Use the Poisson distribution to approximate the probability that exactly 4 people draw a gold ball. Round your answer to four decimal places.

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Solution

(a) To calculate the probability using a binomial distribution, we first need to identify the parameters. In this case, the number of trials (n) is 100 (the number of people playing the game), the number of successes (k) we're interested in is 4 (the number of people drawing a gold ball), and the probability of success on any given trial (p) is 9/300 (the probability of drawing a gold ball).

The formula for the binomial distribution is:

P(X=k) = C(n, k) * (p^k) * ((1-p)^(n-k))

where C(n, k) is the combination of n items taken k at a time, which is calculated as:

C(n, k) = n! / [k!(n-k)!]

So, we plug in our values:

C(100, 4) = 100! / [4!(100-4)!] = 3921225

P(X=4) = 3921225 * ((9/300)^4) * ((1-(9/300))^(100-4))

Calculating this gives us a probability of approximately 0.1983.

(b) To use the Poisson distribution to approximate the probability, we first need to calculate the mean (λ), which is n*p:

λ = 100 * (9/300) = 3

The formula for the Poisson distribution is:

P(X=k) = (λ^k * e^-λ) / k!

So, we plug in our values:

P(X=4) = (3^4 * e^-3) / 4! = 0.1680

So, the probability that exactly 4 people draw a gold ball, approximated using the Poisson distribution, is approximately 0.1680.

This problem has been solved

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