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Consider a manufacturer of perfume who is about to expand production capacity to make a new product. Three alternative production processes are available. The following table shows the estimated profits (in $) for these processes for each of the three possible demand levels for the product.Alternatives                                             States of NatureLow demand Moderate demand High demandA 100,000 350,000 900,000B 150,000 400,000 700,000C 250,000 400,000 600,000Based on the above information, what would be the amount of regret, if alternative production process C is selected by the manufacturer and suppose that the level of demand turns out to be moderate?

Question

Consider a manufacturer of perfume who is about to expand production capacity to make a new product. Three alternative production processes are available. The following table shows the estimated profits (in $) for these processes for each of the three possible demand levels for the product.Alternatives                                             States of NatureLow demand Moderate demand High demandA 100,000 350,000 900,000B 150,000 400,000 700,000C 250,000 400,000 600,000Based on the above information, what would be the amount of regret, if alternative production process C is selected by the manufacturer and suppose that the level of demand turns out to be moderate?

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Solution

The regret is calculated by subtracting the payoff of the chosen decision from the best payoff under the same state of nature. In this case, if the manufacturer chooses production process C and the demand turns out to be moderate, the payoff is $400,000.

Looking at the table, the best payoff under moderate demand is also 400,000(eitherprocessBorC).Therefore,theregretofchoosingprocessCundermoderatedemandis400,000 (either process B or C). Therefore, the regret of choosing process C under moderate demand is 400,000 - 400,000=400,000 = 0.

So, there would be no regret if alternative production process C is selected by the manufacturer and the level of demand turns out to be moderate.

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