1. Quiz Question Consider the Markov chain (Xn, n = 0, 1, 2, . . . ) with state space S = {1, 2, 3, 4}and transition diagramP =1/3 1/3 1/3 01/4 1/2 1/4 00 1/2 0 1/20 1 0 0 .(a) Draw the transition diagram.(b) Find P (X1 = 1, X2 = 2, X3 = 3 | X0 = 2).(c) Find P (X2 = 2, X3 = 1 | X0 = 4, X1 = 2).(d) Find p(2)21 = P (X2 = 1 | X0 = 2).(e) Find P (X7 = 1 | X5 = 2).
Question
- Quiz Question Consider the Markov chain (Xn, n = 0, 1, 2, . . . ) with state space S = {1, 2, 3, 4}and transition diagramP =1/3 1/3 1/3 01/4 1/2 1/4 00 1/2 0 1/20 1 0 0 .(a) Draw the transition diagram.(b) Find P (X1 = 1, X2 = 2, X3 = 3 | X0 = 2).(c) Find P (X2 = 2, X3 = 1 | X0 = 4, X1 = 2).(d) Find p(2)21 = P (X2 = 1 | X0 = 2).(e) Find P (X7 = 1 | X5 = 2).
Solution
(a) The transition diagram would look like this:
1 -[1/3]-> 2 1 -[1/3]-> 3 1 -[1/3]-> 4
2 -[1/4]-> 1 2 -[1/2]-> 3 2 -[1/4]-> 4
3 -[1/2]-> 2 3 -[1/2]-> 4
4 -[1]-> 2
(b) P (X1 = 1, X2 = 2, X3 = 3 | X0 = 2) = P(X1 = 1 | X0 = 2) * P(X2 = 2 | X1 = 1) * P(X3 = 3 | X2 = 2) = 1/4 * 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/24.
(c) P (X2 = 2, X3 = 1 | X0 = 4, X1 = 2) = P(X2 = 2 | X1 = 2) * P(X3 = 1 | X2 = 2) = 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16.
(d) p(2)21 = P (X2 = 1 | X0 = 2) = ∑ P(X1 = j | X0 = 2) * P(X2 = 1 | X1 = j) = 1/4 * 1/3 + 1/2 * 1/4 + 1/4 * 0 = 1/12 + 1/8 = 5/24.
(e) P (X7 = 1 | X5 = 2) = ∑ P(X6 = j | X5 = 2) * P(X7 = 1 | X6 = j) = 1/4 * 1/3 + 1/2 * 1/4 + 1/4 * 0 = 1/12 + 1/8 = 5/24.
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