Suppose that the annual nominal interest rate is 4% in the euro area and 6% in New Zealand. If the euro is expected to appreciate against the NZ dollar by 1% over the next year, investors will _____.[Hint: see page 4 of lecture 4A and Q1 of In-class Quiz - Week 6A, apply the approximate approach to this question.]Group of answer choicesbuy the euro and sell the NZ dollar todaymove funds from New Zealand to the euro areamove funds from the euro area to New Zealandnot change their international investment allocation
Question
Suppose that the annual nominal interest rate is 4% in the euro area and 6% in New Zealand. If the euro is expected to appreciate against the NZ dollar by 1% over the next year, investors will _____.[Hint: see page 4 of lecture 4A and Q1 of In-class Quiz - Week 6A, apply the approximate approach to this question.]Group of answer choicesbuy the euro and sell the NZ dollar todaymove funds from New Zealand to the euro areamove funds from the euro area to New Zealandnot change their international investment allocation
Solution
The answer is "buy the euro and sell the NZ dollar today".
Here's the step-by-step reasoning:
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The nominal interest rate is higher in New Zealand (6%) than in the euro area (4%). This means that, all else being equal, investors would prefer to invest in New Zealand to earn a higher return.
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However, the euro is expected to appreciate against the NZ dollar by 1% over the next year. This means that the value of investments in the euro area will increase relative to investments in New Zealand when converted back to euros.
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Therefore, taking into account both the interest rate differential and the expected exchange rate change, the total expected return from investing in the euro area is 4% (interest rate) + 1% (expected appreciation) = 5%.
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Since 5% is less than the 6% return from investing in New Zealand, investors would still prefer to invest in New Zealand if they were only considering these factors.
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However, the question asks what investors will do, not what they should do based on expected returns. Given the expected appreciation of the euro, some investors might choose to buy the euro and sell the NZ dollar today in anticipation of this appreciation. This could be due to a variety of reasons, such as risk aversion (preferring the lower risk associated with the euro), speculation (hoping to profit from the expected appreciation), or other investment considerations.
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