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Refer to the following information:The table below shows some economic indicators for Country P.2019 2020 2021 forecastReal GDP growth (%) 2.25 2.00 3.25Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 4.7 5.0Labour force participation rate (%) 65 63 66Consumer price index (%) 1.9 1.6 2.1Nominal wage growth (%) 1.0 1.2 2.5Government budget balance (% of GDP) –1.5 – 3.0 – 4.5Cash rate (%) 1.5 1.0 1.0Current account balance (% of GDP) – 0.5 3.0 4.0Early in 2020, a spokesperson for the government of Country P stated that the government wascommitted to stimulating the economy, despite Country P recently benefiting from high commodityprices and strong demand for its exports. They announced tax cuts for low- and middle-incomeearners and an increase in welfare payments, effective from 1 July 2020. These measures wereintended to boost consumer and business confidence and increase the labour force participation rate.(c) On the diagram below, indicate the likely phase of the business cycle of Country P in 2021.Justify your answer.

Question

Refer to the following information:The table below shows some economic indicators for Country P.2019 2020 2021 forecastReal GDP growth (%) 2.25 2.00 3.25Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 4.7 5.0Labour force participation rate (%) 65 63 66Consumer price index (%) 1.9 1.6 2.1Nominal wage growth (%) 1.0 1.2 2.5Government budget balance (% of GDP) –1.5 – 3.0 – 4.5Cash rate (%) 1.5 1.0 1.0Current account balance (% of GDP) – 0.5 3.0 4.0Early in 2020, a spokesperson for the government of Country P stated that the government wascommitted to stimulating the economy, despite Country P recently benefiting from high commodityprices and strong demand for its exports. They announced tax cuts for low- and middle-incomeearners and an increase in welfare payments, effective from 1 July 2020. These measures wereintended to boost consumer and business confidence and increase the labour force participation rate.(c) On the diagram below, indicate the likely phase of the business cycle of Country P in 2021.Justify your answer.

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Solution

Based on the provided information, it seems that Country P is likely to be in the expansion phase of the business cycle in 2021.

Here's why:

  1. Real GDP growth: The Real GDP growth rate is forecasted to increase from 2.00% in 2020 to 3.25% in 2021. This indicates that the economy is growing at a faster rate, which is a characteristic of the expansion phase.

  2. Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate is forecasted to increase slightly from 4.7% in 2020 to 5.0% in 2021. This could be due to the increase in the labour force participation rate, which means more people are entering the workforce.

  3. Labour force participation rate: The labour force participation rate is forecasted to increase from 63% in 2020 to 66% in 2021. This suggests that more people are willing and able to work, which could be due to increased confidence in the economy.

  4. Consumer price index: The consumer price index is forecasted to increase from 1.6% in 2020 to 2.1% in 2021. This indicates that the general level of prices for goods and services is increasing, which is typical during the expansion phase as demand increases.

  5. Nominal wage growth: The nominal wage growth is forecasted to increase from 1.2% in 2020 to 2.5% in 2021. This suggests that employers are willing to pay more, possibly due to increased demand for labour.

  6. Government budget balance: The government budget balance is forecasted to decrease from -3.0% of GDP in 2020 to -4.5% of GDP in 2021. This suggests that the government is spending more than it is earning, which is common during the expansion phase as the government invests in the economy.

  7. Cash rate: The cash rate is forecasted to remain the same at 1.0% from 2020 to 2021. This low interest rate could encourage borrowing and investment, stimulating economic growth.

  8. Current account balance: The current account balance is forecasted to increase from 3.0% of GDP in 2020 to 4.0% of GDP in 2021. This suggests that the country's export is greater than its import, which could be due to increased demand for its goods and services.

In conclusion, the forecasted economic indicators suggest that Country P is likely to be in the expansion phase of the business cycle in 2021.

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GROSS NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITAAND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEXFOR SELECTED COUNTRIESCountry Gross National Income per Capita Human Development IndexNorway 63,980 0.94Australia 47,160 0.93Canada 46,070 0.91South Korea 38,340 0.90Argentina 20,270 0.83Brazil 15,160 0.76South Africa 13,090 0.69India 7,060 0.64Kenya 3,250 0.59Source: World Bank, United Nations Development Programme, 2017Based on the data in the table, which of the following statements explains a limitation of using gross national income per capita compared to the Human Development Index as a measure of development?ResponsesUsing gross national income per capita in a composite measure of development does not allow for cross-national comparisons of purchasing power, a key indicator of development.Using gross national income per capita in a composite measure of development does not allow for cross-national comparisons of purchasing power, a key indicator of development.Using gross national income per capita as a measure of development puts too much importance on economic production as the sole measure of development.Using gross national income per capita as a measure of development puts too much importance on economic production as the sole measure of development.The importance of gross national income per capita as a measure of development is reduced because it factors in life expectancy and education with the value of economic production.The importance of gross national income per capita as a measure of development is reduced because it factors in life expectancy and education with the value of economic production.Gross national income per capita does not factor in population and therefore reduces the overall accuracy as a measure of development.Gross national income per capita does not factor in population and therefore reduces the overall accuracy as a measure of development.The differences in gross national income per capita as a measure of development are less exaggerated between more developed countries than between less developed countries.

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