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The OzLand government is interested in whether trade union membership has a causal impact on a worker’s wages.  Theory suggests that trade union membership can directly affect a worker’s wages; and as well can indirectly increase a worker’s wages by increasing their job tenure (length of time working for the same employer).  You are asked to advise on the type of regression model that the government should estimate.  The dependent variable in the regression is wages of individual workers.  If the government wants to estimate the causal impact of trade union membership on wages it {should/should not} include job tenure as an explanatory variable in addition to a variable for union membership.  Whereas if the government wants to make the best prediction of an individual worker’s wages it {should/should not} include job tenure as an explanatory variable in addition to a variable for union membership.  What is your advice?Group of answer choicesCausal impact: Should not; Prediction: ShouldCausal impact: Should; Prediction: ShouldCausal impact: Should not; Prediction: Should notCausal impact: Should; Prediction: Should not

Question

The OzLand government is interested in whether trade union membership has a causal impact on a worker’s wages.  Theory suggests that trade union membership can directly affect a worker’s wages; and as well can indirectly increase a worker’s wages by increasing their job tenure (length of time working for the same employer).  You are asked to advise on the type of regression model that the government should estimate.  The dependent variable in the regression is wages of individual workers.  If the government wants to estimate the causal impact of trade union membership on wages it {should/should not} include job tenure as an explanatory variable in addition to a variable for union membership.  Whereas if the government wants to make the best prediction of an individual worker’s wages it {should/should not} include job tenure as an explanatory variable in addition to a variable for union membership.  What is your advice?Group of answer choicesCausal impact: Should not; Prediction: ShouldCausal impact: Should; Prediction: ShouldCausal impact: Should not; Prediction: Should notCausal impact: Should; Prediction: Should not

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Solution

My advice would be: Causal impact: Should; Prediction: Should.

For estimating the causal impact of trade union membership on wages, job tenure should be included as an explanatory variable. This is because job tenure can be a confounding variable that affects both union membership and wages. By including job tenure in the regression model, we can control for its effect and isolate the causal impact of union membership on wages.

For making the best prediction of an individual worker’s wages, job tenure should also be included as an explanatory variable. This is because both union membership and job tenure can influence a worker's wages. Including both variables in the model will likely improve the accuracy of wage predictions.

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