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If expectations are formed rationally, then individualsA) will have a forecast that is 100% accurate all of the time.B) change their forecast when faced with new information.C) use only the information from past data on a single variable to form their forecast.D) have forecast errors that are persistently low.

Question

If expectations are formed rationally, then individualsA) will have a forecast that is 100% accurate all of the time.B) change their forecast when faced with new information.C) use only the information from past data on a single variable to form their forecast.D) have forecast errors that are persistently low.

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Solution

The correct answer is B) change their forecast when faced with new information.

Rational expectations theory suggests that individuals will use all available information, including information about current and future policies, to form their forecasts. Therefore, when new information becomes available, they will adjust their forecasts accordingly. This does not mean their forecasts will always be 100% accurate (option A), as the future is inherently uncertain and new information can always arise.

Option C is incorrect because rational expectations theory suggests that individuals use all available information, not just past data on a single variable.

Option D is also incorrect because having rational expectations does not guarantee that forecast errors will be persistently low. While the theory suggests that individuals will not make systematic errors in their forecasts, it does not preclude the possibility of random errors.

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Outline the elements of forecasting

An individual's judgement or opinion should never be used when developing a forecast.Multiple ChoiceTrueFalse

What are some criticisms of the adaptive expectations hypothesis? Group of answer choices People are not able to use all available information to form their expectations People's expectations are not based on forecasts People are too quick to change their expectations in response to new information People's expectations of a variable are affected by other factors beyond past data on that variable

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