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Q2 : Judging from the current housing price market in China, what is the future trend? Will house prices fall?

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Q2 :

Judging from the current housing price market in China, what is the future trend? Will house prices fall?

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Solution

根据当前中国的房地产市场情况,未来的房价趋势可能会受到多种因素的影响,包括经济增长、政策调控、供需关系等。近年来,中国政府采取了一系列措施来抑制房价过快上涨,例如限购、限贷等政策,这可能会导致房价的稳定或小幅下跌。

然而,房价的走势也与地方经济发展、人口流动以及城市化进程密切相关。在一些经济发展较快、人口流入较多的城市,房价可能仍会保持坚挺或上涨。而在一些经济增长缓慢、人口流出较多的地区,房价可能会面临下行压力。

总体来看,房价是否会下跌取决于多种因素的综合作用,短期内可能会出现波动,但长期趋势仍需关注政策和市场的变化。

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Verified Answer

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The asking prices of properties for sale in Malaysia will continue to rise as existing homeowners raise their selling prices.However, the concern is that there is lower demand from buyers, creating a widening gap between them and sellers.The PropertyGuru Malaysia's Property Market Report Q1 2023 captured upward trends in the Sale Price Index, with asking prices on PropertyGuru listings increasing by 1.5 per cent quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022).For the whole of 2022, the asking prices went up by five per cent.Sheldon Fernandez, country manager, Malaysia (PropertyGuru.com.my and iProperty.com.my), said this likely comes on the back of the overnight policy rate rising to 2.75 per cent last year, contributing towards the higher overall cost of property ownership.In contrast, the Sale Demand Index saw a significant drop of 14.8 per cent quarter on quarter, reflecting how potential buyers may still be facing affordability issues or a lack of confidence in the current property prices on the market."While the property market has seen healthy activity throughout 2022, our recent reports have shown that Malaysians are now more careful when making big purchasing decisions. Rising inflation and higher borrowing costs have tightened potential buyers' budgets, simultaneously forcing sellers to raise their prices to cover the higher cost of property investments. This has created a phenomenon where the price gap between both parties has widened, further contributing to the housing affordability issue we've been tracking through the past year," he said.Fernandez said that homeowners are increasing housing prices to counter the higher overall cost of homeownership caused by the higher interest rate.As prices continue to rise, interest in Johor's real estate market is also on the upswing, he said.The Astaka @ 1 Bukit Senyum topped the condominium category with 8,784 views on the PropertyGuru website, while Leisure Farm took the top spot for landed properties."This is likely due to the projects' advantageous locations, which are strategically located with competitive property prices," he said.In the central region, Cheras and Bandar Tasik Selatan registered the highest increase in interest.Fernandez said that potential buyers have also set their sights toward the outer areas of Klang Valley due to larger and more affordable housing options with access to the Light Rail Transit or expressways.He said this is consistent with the findings of PropertyGuru Malaysia's Consumer Sentiment Study for H1 2022, where the increase in a remote working arrangements in industries contributed to the preference for property outside the city."As the Malaysian economy is expected to expand by four to five per cent in 2023, the property market is likely to remain active with positive growth," Fernandez said.The Malaysian economy expanded by 8.7 per cent year on year in 2022, the highest annual growth recorded after 2000 (8.9 per cent year on year), according to the Ministry of Finance.The growth is paired with a downward unemployment rate trend, declining to 3.6 per cent in Q3 2022 from 4.2 per cent in Q1 2022.Fernandez said these positive shifts in the local economy eases the pressure on property players to sell, with most holding an optimistic view of the market in lieu of the appointment of the new government.Rental properties on an uptrendPotential purchasers turned away from the housing market as a result of escalating property values and moved towards the rental market as seen by the Rental Demand Index reaching 32.9 per cent in 2022.Fernandez said that the supply of rental listings on the PropertyGuru website also increased by 19.6 per cent, as landlords were jumping back into a rental market with positive demand, seeking alternative income sources to offset inflation.However, the Property Market Report registered ease in rental demand by four per cent quarter on quarter in Q4 2022, after consecutive increases in the previous quarters.He believes that the slight downturn in rental appetite may be due to the higher rental prices in the market, edging up to 2.8 per cent quarter on quarter at the end of last year."Despite this, the rental market is expected to remain active as the government recently waived industry quotas to speed up the hiring of foreign workers, who will bring in fresh demand for rental properties in industrial areas of Malaysia," he said

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