An eight-team single-elimination tournament is set up as follows: For example,eight students (called A,B,...,H) set up a tournament among themselves. The top-listed2student in each bracket calls heads or tails when his or her opponent flips a coin. If the callis correct, the student moves on to the next bracket.(a) How many coin flips are required to determine the tournament winner?(b) What is the probability that you can predict all of the winners?(c) In NCAA Division I basketball, 64 teams participate in a single-elimination tourna-ment to determine the national champion. How many games are required to determine thenational champion?(d) Assume that for any given game, either team has an equal chance of winning (thatis probably not true). On page 43 of the March 22, 1999, issue, Time claimed that the“mathematical odds of predicting all 63 NCAA games correctly is 1 in 75 million.” Do youagree with this statement? If not, why not?
Question
An eight-team single-elimination tournament is set up as follows: For example,eight students (called A,B,...,H) set up a tournament among themselves. The top-listed2student in each bracket calls heads or tails when his or her opponent flips a coin. If the callis correct, the student moves on to the next bracket.(a) How many coin flips are required to determine the tournament winner?(b) What is the probability that you can predict all of the winners?(c) In NCAA Division I basketball, 64 teams participate in a single-elimination tourna-ment to determine the national champion. How many games are required to determine thenational champion?(d) Assume that for any given game, either team has an equal chance of winning (thatis probably not true). On page 43 of the March 22, 1999, issue, Time claimed that the“mathematical odds of predicting all 63 NCAA games correctly is 1 in 75 million.” Do youagree with this statement? If not, why not?
Solution
(a) In a single-elimination tournament with 8 teams, each round halves the number of teams until only one is left. So, in the first round, there are 4 matches (8 teams / 2), in the second round there are 2 matches (4 teams / 2), and in the final round there is 1 match (2 teams / 2). Therefore, a total of 4 + 2 + 1 = 7 coin flips are required to determine the tournament winner.
(b) The probability of correctly predicting the outcome of a single coin flip is 1/2 (since there are two equally likely outcomes). Since there are 7 coin flips, the probability of correctly predicting all of them is (1/2)^7 = 1/128.
(c) In a single-elimination tournament with 64 teams, each round halves the number of teams until only one is left. So, in the first round, there are 32 matches (64 teams / 2), in the second round there are 16 matches (32 teams / 2), in the third round there are 8 matches (16 teams / 2), in the fourth round there are 4 matches (8 teams / 2), in the fifth round there are 2 matches (4 teams / 2), and in the final round there is 1 match (2 teams / 2). Therefore, a total of 32 + 16 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 1 = 63 games are required to determine the national champion.
(d) The probability of correctly predicting the outcome of a single game, assuming each team has an equal chance of winning, is 1/2. Since there are 63 games, the probability of correctly predicting all of them is (1/2)^63. This is approximately 1 in 9.22 quintillion, which is much larger than 1 in 75 million. Therefore, I do not agree with the statement in Time.
Similar Questions
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