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A time series modeled using an AR model is assumed to be generated as a linear function of its past values, plus:business insightsa random noise/errora target mean/median

Question

A time series modeled using an AR model is assumed to be generated as a linear function of its past values, plus:business insightsa random noise/errora target mean/median

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Solution

A time series modeled using an AR (Autoregressive) model is assumed to be generated as a linear function of its past values, plus a random noise/error.

Here's the step-by-step explanation:

  1. Time Series: This is a sequence of numerical data points in successive order. In finance, a time series tracks the movement of the chosen data points, such as a security’s price over a specified period.

  2. AR Model: The Autoregressive model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. It is an approach to modeling the change in a variable that assumes such change is a linear function of its own past values.

  3. Linear Function of its Past Values: This means that the model assumes the present value of the time series data can be calculated from its past values using a linear equation.

  4. Random Noise/Error: This is the component of the model that accounts for the variability in the time series data that can't be attributed to the past values. It's often assumed to be normally distributed and is used to account for the randomness in the data.

So, in summary, an AR model generates a time series as a linear function of its past values with some random noise or error added in.

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