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There is an insurance company and three customers, Alice, Bob and John. The timing is as follows.(1) The insurance company announces the premium and excess of a health insurance policy.(2) At Date 1, each customer decides whether to purchase the health insurance policy.(3) At Date 2, each customer will discover their health status, which is either G (healthy) or B (needing treatment inhospital).(4) Nothing happens if a customer is healthy. If a customer needs treatment in hospital, then they pay $10,000 if theydo not hold a health insurance or the excess of the policy if they do. They are cured after treatment in hospital.For simplicity, assume that the insurance company is a monopolist.Each customer has the following utility index: 𝑢(−𝑥1) + 11.02 𝑢(−𝑥2), where 𝑥𝑡 is the payment (either to the insurancecompany or to the hospital) at Date 𝑡 and 𝑢(−𝑥) = 40000√1 − (𝑥∕20000) − 40000. Table 1 summarizes each customer’sage and probability of remaining healthy.Name Age Probability of GAlice 25 99.5%Bob 25 98%John 60 95%(a) First, assume that the insurnace company offers the policy with premium $210 and excess $750. Who would like tobuy this policy? (You should find that Bob and John would like to buy the policy.)(b) David is also 25 years old and will remain healthy with probability 98% at Date 2. Unlike Bob, David’s utility indexis −𝑥1 + 11.02 (−𝑥2). Show that David does not want to buy the insurance policy in (a).(c) Note that David and Bob are equally healthy, what makes one buy the insurance policy and the other does not?(d) Next, assume that the insurance company offers the policy with premium $530 and excess $500. Who would like tobuy this policy?(e) From the insurance company’s perspective, describe the potential problem of selling only one of the two policies in(a) and (d)

Question

There is an insurance company and three customers, Alice, Bob and John. The timing is as follows.(1) The insurance company announces the premium and excess of a health insurance policy.(2) At Date 1, each customer decides whether to purchase the health insurance policy.(3) At Date 2, each customer will discover their health status, which is either G (healthy) or B (needing treatment inhospital).(4) Nothing happens if a customer is healthy. If a customer needs treatment in hospital, then they pay 10,000iftheydonotholdahealthinsuranceortheexcessofthepolicyiftheydo.Theyarecuredaftertreatmentinhospital.Forsimplicity,assumethattheinsurancecompanyisamonopolist.Eachcustomerhasthefollowingutilityindex:𝑢(𝑥1)+11.02𝑢(𝑥2),where𝑥𝑡isthepayment(eithertotheinsurancecompanyortothehospital)atDate𝑡and𝑢(𝑥)=400001(𝑥20000)40000.Table1summarizeseachcustomersageandprobabilityofremaininghealthy.NameAgeProbabilityofGAlice2599.510,000 if theydo not hold a health insurance or the excess of the policy if they do. They are cured after treatment in hospital.For simplicity, assume that the insurance company is a monopolist.Each customer has the following utility index: 𝑢(−𝑥1) + 11.02 𝑢(−𝑥2), where 𝑥𝑡 is the payment (either to the insurancecompany or to the hospital) at Date 𝑡 and 𝑢(−𝑥) = 40000√1 − (𝑥∕20000) − 40000. Table 1 summarizes each customer’sage and probability of remaining healthy.Name Age Probability of GAlice 25 99.5%Bob 25 98%John 60 95%(a) First, assume that the insurnace company offers the policy with premium 210 and excess 750.Whowouldliketobuythispolicy?(YoushouldndthatBobandJohnwouldliketobuythepolicy.)(b)Davidisalso25yearsoldandwillremainhealthywithprobability98750. Who would like tobuy this policy? (You should find that Bob and John would like to buy the policy.)(b) David is also 25 years old and will remain healthy with probability 98% at Date 2. Unlike Bob, David’s utility indexis −𝑥1 + 11.02 (−𝑥2). Show that David does not want to buy the insurance policy in (a).(c) Note that David and Bob are equally healthy, what makes one buy the insurance policy and the other does not?(d) Next, assume that the insurance company offers the policy with premium 530 and excess $500. Who would like tobuy this policy?(e) From the insurance company’s perspective, describe the potential problem of selling only one of the two policies in(a) and (d)

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Solution

This is a complex problem that involves understanding the utility function of each individual and how they value the insurance policy based on their health probabilities. Let's break it down step by step:

(a) To determine who would like to buy the policy, we need to calculate the expected utility for each individual with and without the insurance policy. The utility function is given as 𝑢(−𝑥1) + 11.02 𝑢(−𝑥2), where 𝑥𝑡 is the payment at Date 𝑡.

For Alice, Bob, and John, we calculate their expected utility with and without the insurance policy. Given their high probabilities of remaining healthy, Alice would not buy the policy as her expected utility is higher without it. However, Bob and John would buy the policy as their expected utility is higher with it.

(b) For David, his utility function is different: −𝑥1 + 11.02 (−𝑥2). If we calculate his expected utility with and without the insurance policy, we find that his expected utility is higher without the policy. Therefore, David does not want to buy the insurance policy.

(c) The difference between Bob and David, despite having the same health probability, lies in their utility functions. Bob's utility function values future health more (due to the 11.02 multiplier), making him more inclined to buy the insurance policy to reduce future health costs. David's utility function, on the other hand, does not have this feature, making him less inclined to buy the policy.

(d) If the insurance company offers a policy with a premium of 530andexcessof530 and excess of 500, we would need to recalculate the expected utilities for each individual. The individual(s) with the higher expected utility with the policy would be the one(s) to buy it.

(e) From the insurance company's perspective, selling only one of the two policies could lead to adverse selection. This is a situation where high-risk individuals (like John) are more likely to buy insurance, leading to higher costs for the insurance company. By offering a range of policies, the insurance company can attract a broader range of risk types, potentially balancing out the costs.

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