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Suppose Joan has a fair four-sided die with sides that are numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4.Image attribution: CC BY NC 3.0 by CK-12After she rolls it 2,000 times, she finds that she rolled the number 2 a total of 187 times. Which of the following is true? Joan has provided evidence that calls into question whether or not this is a fair die because the relative frequency of rolling a 2 is quite different than the theoretical probability even after repeating the experiment many times. Joan has demonstrated that this is a fair die, since the relative frequency of rolling a 2 is nearly equal to the theoretical probability. We cannot draw any conclusions from Joan’s experience with this die without also knowing how many times the other numbers appeared. We cannot draw any conclusions from Joan’s experience with this die because there is only a very weak link between the relative frequency of an event and the theoretical probability.

Question

Suppose Joan has a fair four-sided die with sides that are numbered 1, 2, 3, and 4.Image attribution: CC BY NC 3.0 by CK-12After she rolls it 2,000 times, she finds that she rolled the number 2 a total of 187 times. Which of the following is true? Joan has provided evidence that calls into question whether or not this is a fair die because the relative frequency of rolling a 2 is quite different than the theoretical probability even after repeating the experiment many times. Joan has demonstrated that this is a fair die, since the relative frequency of rolling a 2 is nearly equal to the theoretical probability. We cannot draw any conclusions from Joan’s experience with this die without also knowing how many times the other numbers appeared. We cannot draw any conclusions from Joan’s experience with this die because there is only a very weak link between the relative frequency of an event and the theoretical probability.

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Solution

The statement that is true is: "Joan has provided evidence that calls into question whether or not this is a fair die because the relative frequency of rolling a 2 is quite different than the theoretical probability even after repeating the experiment many times."

Here's why:

  1. The theoretical probability of rolling a 2 on a fair four-sided die is 1/4 = 0.25 or 25%.

  2. If Joan rolled the die 2,000 times, we would expect the number 2 to come up about 500 times (0.25 * 2000 = 500).

  3. However, Joan rolled a 2 only 187 times, which is significantly less than the expected 500 times.

  4. Therefore, the relative frequency of rolling a 2 (187/2000 = 0.0935 or 9.35%) is quite different from the theoretical probability of 25%.

  5. This difference suggests that the die might not be fair, even though the experiment was repeated many times.

This problem has been solved

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