You are an American investor who can borrow $1,000,000 or the equivalent amount in euros today.Suppose the spot rate is $1.00/€, and the one-year forward rate is $1.10/€. The annual interest rate is 5 percent in the U.S. and 3 percent in Germany. Check if IRP holds. If it does not hold, set up a covered interest arbitrage. What will be your profit from this arbitrage opportunity in dollars?
Question
You are an American investor who can borrow 1.00/€, and the one-year forward rate is $1.10/€. The annual interest rate is 5 percent in the U.S. and 3 percent in Germany. Check if IRP holds. If it does not hold, set up a covered interest arbitrage. What will be your profit from this arbitrage opportunity in dollars?
Solution
Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is a theory in which the interest rate differential between two countries is equal to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. IRP is used to determine the forward exchange rate.
Step 1: Check if IRP holds The formula for IRP is (1 + i domestic) = (1 + i foreign) * (Forward rate / Spot rate)
Substituting the given values into the formula: (1 + 0.05) = (1 + 0.03) * (1.10 / 1.00)
1.05 = 1.03 * 1.10
1.05 ≠ 1.133
Since the two sides are not equal, IRP does not hold.
Step 2: Set up a covered interest arbitrage Since IRP does not hold, there is an opportunity for covered interest arbitrage. Here's how you can take advantage of it:
- Borrow $1,000,000 in the U.S. at an interest rate of 5%.
- Convert the 1.00/€. You now have €1,000,000.
- Invest the €1,000,000 in Germany at an interest rate of 3%. After one year, you will have €1,000,000 * 1.03 = €1,030,000.
- Enter into a forward contract to convert €1,030,000 into dollars at the forward rate of 1.10/€ = $1,133,000.
Step 3: Calculate the profit The profit from this arbitrage opportunity is the amount you have after one year minus the amount you owe in the U.S. (including interest).
Profit = 1,000,000 * 1.05 = 1,050,000 = $83,000
So, your profit from this arbitrage opportunity would be $83,000.
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