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The table below shows the number of deaths in the U.S. in a year due to a variety of causes. For these questions, assume these values are not changing from year to year, and that the population of the United States is 312 million people.Cause DeathsPassenger car occupant (driver or rider) 13,100Motorcycle (driver or rider) 4,500Tornado 553Skydiving 56 Hint: Does your probability of dying in a car accident next year differ much from the probability of a random person dying in a car accident?c) Estimate the probability that you will die as a passenger car occupant next year?

Question

The table below shows the number of deaths in the U.S. in a year due to a variety of causes. For these questions, assume these values are not changing from year to year, and that the population of the United States is 312 million people.Cause DeathsPassenger car occupant (driver or rider) 13,100Motorcycle (driver or rider) 4,500Tornado 553Skydiving 56 Hint: Does your probability of dying in a car accident next year differ much from the probability of a random person dying in a car accident?c) Estimate the probability that you will die as a passenger car occupant next year?

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Solution

Para estimar la probabilidad de que mueras como ocupante de un automóvil de pasajeros el próximo año, sigue estos pasos:

  1. Identificar el número de muertes por ocupantes de automóviles de pasajeros: Según la tabla, hay 13,100 muertes de ocupantes de automóviles de pasajeros en un año.

  2. Identificar la población total de los Estados Unidos: La población es de 312 millones de personas.

  3. Calcular la probabilidad: La probabilidad de que una persona muera como ocupante de un automóvil de pasajeros se puede calcular dividiendo el número de muertes por la población total.

    Probabilidad=Nuˊmero de muertesPoblacioˊn total=13,100312,000,000 \text{Probabilidad} = \frac{\text{Número de muertes}}{\text{Población total}} = \frac{13,100}{312,000,000}

  4. Realizar la división:

    Probabilidad=13,100312,000,0000.000042 \text{Probabilidad} = \frac{13,100}{312,000,000} \approx 0.000042

  5. Convertir a porcentaje (opcional): Multiplica el resultado por 100 para obtener la probabilidad en porcentaje.

    Probabilidad en porcentaje0.0042% \text{Probabilidad en porcentaje} \approx 0.0042\%

Por lo tanto, la probabilidad de que mueras como ocupante de un automóvil de pasajeros el próximo año es aproximadamente 0.000042, o 0.0042%.

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