Question 1Researchers found a statistically significant difference between mean consumer spending in December 2019 and mean consumer spending in December 2020, with p = .01. Which of the following is an appropriate conclusion?1 pointThe difference in mean consumer spending in December of 2020 compared to mean consumer spending in December of 2019 is meaningful.The likelihood of making a Type I error is p = .01.If the null is false, then the likelihood of finding a mean this extreme would be less than .01.If the null is true, then the likelihood of observing a sample mean at least this extreme is less than .01.
Question
Question 1Researchers found a statistically significant difference between mean consumer spending in December 2019 and mean consumer spending in December 2020, with p = .01. Which of the following is an appropriate conclusion?1 pointThe difference in mean consumer spending in December of 2020 compared to mean consumer spending in December of 2019 is meaningful.The likelihood of making a Type I error is p = .01.If the null is false, then the likelihood of finding a mean this extreme would be less than .01.If the null is true, then the likelihood of observing a sample mean at least this extreme is less than .01.
Solution
The most appropriate conclusion from the given information is: "If the null is true, then the likelihood of observing a sample mean at least this extreme is less than .01."
This is because a p-value (in this case, p = .01) is the probability of obtaining a result as extreme as, or more extreme than, the observed data, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. The null hypothesis typically represents a scenario of no effect or no difference.
So, in this context, the null hypothesis might be that there is no difference in mean consumer spending between December 2019 and December 2020. The p-value of .01 indicates that, assuming this null hypothesis is true, there is a 1% chance of observing a difference in mean consumer spending as extreme as (or more extreme than) the one observed.
This does not necessarily mean that the difference is "meaningful" or "significant" in a practical sense, nor does it directly tell us anything about the likelihood of making a Type I error, or the likelihood of finding such a mean if the null is false. It simply tells us how likely we are to observe such a result if the null is true.
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