Forecast the direction (up or down) for theUSD/CNY pair’s price in two months, providing a point estimate to 2 decimal places. (ii) In no more than 250 words, explain the factors considered in forming your forecast and why these are considered to be both relevant and pivotal.

Outline the elements of forecasting

Question 1 What smooths out price data to reveal underlying trend direction? A) The moving average B) Pivots C) Stochastic D) The RSI E) Bollinger bands F) The average true range Question 2 What serves as beacons in the market highlighting major support and resistance points? A) The moving average B) Pivots C) Stochastic D) The RSI E) Bollinger bands F) The average true range Question 3 What asset & measure the strength of a trend? A) The moving average B) Pivots C) Stochastic D) The RSI E) Bollinger bands F) The average true range Question 4 What emphasizes the closing of prices to the high, low range of a certain period? A) The moving average B) Pivots C) Stochastic D) The RSI E) Bollinger bands F) The average true range Question 5 What adjusts dynamically with volatility where the bands expand during periods of high volatility and contract in periods of low volatility? A) The moving average B) Pivots C) Stochastic D) The RSI E) Bollinger bands F) The average true range Question 6 What measures the market's interest or the intensity of trading? A) The moving average B) Pivots C) Stochastic D) The RSI E) Bollinger bands F) The average true range Question 7 What is the language of the market that reveals the ongoing battle between the bears and the bulls? A) Chart patterns B) Continuation patterns C) Reversal patterns D) Candlestick patterns Question 8 What indicates a potential shift in market direction, signaling the current trend may be about to change course? A) Chart patterns B) Continuation patterns C) Reversal patterns D) Candlestick patterns Question 9 What chart pattern is a bearish reversal that consists of three peaks, with the central peak being the highest, flanked by two smaller peaks? A) Head & Shoulders B) Double top C) Ascending triangle D) Double bottom E) Flag pattern F) Wedges Question 10 What suggests a temporary pause in the trend with the original trend to resume after? A) Chart patterns B) Continuation patterns C) Reversal patterns D) Candlestick patterns Question 11 What chart pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that consists of two consecutive dips at approximately the same price level? A) Head & Shoulders B) Double top C) Ascending triangle D) Double bottom E) Flag pattern F) Wedges Question 12 What chart pattern is a bearish reversal pattern that consists of two consecutive peaks at approximately the same price level? A) Head & Shoulders B) Double top C) Ascending triangle D) Double bottom E) Flag pattern F) Wedges Question 13 What chart pattern signals a continuation when two trend lines cross? A) Head & Shoulders B) Double top C) Ascending triangle D) Double bottom E) Flag pattern F) Wedges Question 14 What chart pattern signals a continuation when two parallel trend lines go against the prevailing trend? A) Head & Shoulders B) Double top C) Ascending triangle D) Double bottom E) Flag pattern F) Wedges Question 15 What type of pattern's movement and form gives understanding to the current state of the market? A) Chart patterns B) Continuation patterns C) Reversal patterns D) Candlestick patterns Question 16 What candlestick pattern is a Bullish reversal pattern that forms at the bottom of a Downtrend and is made up of one candle with a small body and a long lower wick? A) Hammer B) Marubozu C) Bullish engulfing D) Bearish engulfing Question 17 What candlestick pattern is a Bearish reversal pattern that forms at the top of an uptrend, consisting of at least two candles: the first is Bullish and the second is Bearish that completely consumes the first candle? A) Hammer B) Marubozu C) Bullish engulfing D) Bearish engulfing

Assume you have the following 3 month options on XYZ available, where So=$52.00: Call, K=$50.00 Call, K=$52.00 Call, K=$54.00 Put, K=$50.00 Put, K=$52.00 Put, K=$54.00 You wish to create a directional exposure to XYZ. You believe that the current price will rise moderately over the next 3 months, to around $54.00. If the market falls, you wish to limit your losses. Using just two of the above call options, you can construct a strategy that will maximise your profit by buying a $50.00 call and selling a $54.00 call . Alternatively, by using just two of the above call options, you can construct a less risky, less profitable strategy that still suits your view b y? a ? and selling a ?

Assume you have the following 3 month options on XYZ available, where So=$52.00: Call, K=$50.00 Call, K=$52.00 Call, K=$54.00 Put, K=$50.00 Put, K=$52.00 Put, K=$54.00 You wish to create a directional exposure to XYZ. You believe that the current price will rise moderately over the next 3 months, to around$54.00. If the market falls, you wish to limit your losses. Using just two of the above call options, you can construct a strategy that will maximise your profit by buying a ? and ? a ?. Alternatively, using just two of the above put options, you can construct a strategy that will equally maximise your profit by buying a

what do you mean by forecasting? Explain its steps