Knowee
Questions
Features
Study Tools

As of October 2023 the current prevalence of Covid-19 in New South Wales is estimated to be roughly 1 in 1,000. Suppose a Rapid Antigen test has a 95% chance of correctly identifying someone with the virus and a 98% chance of correctly identifying someone without the virus. If we made all 8,000,000 people in New South Wales take a Rapid Antigen test what percentage of the people who tested positive would actually have Covid-19?Group of answer choices0.1%95%2.5%2%5.5%4.5%

Question

As of October 2023 the current prevalence of Covid-19 in New South Wales is estimated to be roughly 1 in 1,000. Suppose a Rapid Antigen test has a 95% chance of correctly identifying someone with the virus and a 98% chance of correctly identifying someone without the virus. If we made all 8,000,000 people in New South Wales take a Rapid Antigen test what percentage of the people who tested positive would actually have Covid-19?Group of answer choices0.1%95%2.5%2%5.5%4.5%

...expand
🧐 Not the exact question you are looking for?Go ask a question

Solution

To answer this question, we need to use the concept of Bayes' theorem, which is a fundamental concept in probability theory and statistics that describes how to update the probabilities of hypotheses when given evidence.

Step 1: Calculate the number of people who actually have Covid-19 As per the question, the prevalence of Covid-19 in New South Wales is estimated to be roughly 1 in 1,000. So, out of 8,000,000 people, the number of people who actually have Covid-19 is 8,000,000 / 1,000 = 8,000.

Step 2: Calculate the number of people who don't have Covid-19 The number of people who don't have Covid-19 is 8,000,000 - 8,000 = 7,992,000.

Step 3: Calculate the number of true positives A true positive is when the test correctly identifies someone with the virus. The Rapid Antigen test has a 95% chance of correctly identifying someone with the virus. So, the number of true positives is 95/100 * 8,000 = 7,600.

Step 4: Calculate the number of false positives A false positive is when the test incorrectly identifies someone without the virus as having the virus. The Rapid Antigen test has a 2% chance of incorrectly identifying someone without the virus (100% - 98% = 2%). So, the number of false positives is 2/100 * 7,992,000 = 159,840.

Step 5: Calculate the total number of positives The total number of positives is the sum of true positives and false positives. So, the total number of positives is 7,600 + 159,840 = 167,440.

Step 6: Calculate the percentage of people who tested positive that actually have Covid-19 The percentage of people who tested positive that actually have Covid-19 is the number of true positives divided by the total number of positives, multiplied by 100. So, the percentage is 7,600 / 167,440 * 100 = 4.54%.

So, the answer is 4.5%.

This problem has been solved

Similar Questions

A recent study showed that correctly administered rapid antigen tests (RATs) will return a positive result 65.3% of the time among patients that have a COVID infection. What is the implied false negative "rate" for these tests?Group of answer choices0.9990.3470.6530.001

In a random sample of 373 people that were tested for the Norcovirus, it was found that 321 did not have the virus. A 94% confidence interval was constructed to estimate the proportion of the population that does not have the Norcovirus. This confidence interval came out to be (0.83,0.89).Select the correct intrepretation of this interval.We are 94% confident that the proportion of people in the sample that tested postitive for the Norcovirus is between 83% and 89%.We are 94% confident that the proportion of people in the sample that tested negative for the Norcovirus is between 83% and 89%.We are 94% confident that the proportion of the population that have the Norcovirus is between 83% and 89%.We are 94% confident that the proportion of the population that does not have the Norcovirus is between 83% and 89%.

It is known that a rare disease affects 1% of the population. A medical test for this disease is 99% effective, which means that if you have the disease, there is a 99% chance that the test will be positive, and if you do not have the disease, there is a 99% chance that the test will be negative.If you take the medical test and result is positive, what is the chance that you have the disease?Hint: consider a cohort of 10000 people and calculate P(having the disease AND test is positive) and P(not having the disease AND test is positive)Group of answer choices0.750.990.010.5

Researchers at a large pharmaceutical company are conducting a clinic trial to determine the effectiveness of a new therapeutic for COVID-19. Patients are recruited for the clinical trial immediately following a positive test result for COVID-19. Half of the patients, assigned at random, will receive the new therapeutic. The other half will receive an off-label therapeutic currently in wide use by a subset of all doctors treating COVID-19 patients. Patients will be tested daily and the number of days between the initial positive test result and a negative test result are recorded. Assuming that all conditions for inference are met, which of the following significance tests should be conducted to determine whether the use of the new COVID-19 therapeutic results in a smaller average number of days until a negative test than the widely used off-label therapeutic? (A) Paired t-test, one-sided (B) Two-sample z-test, one-sided (C) Two-sample z-test, two-sided (D) Two-sample t-test, one-sided (E) Two-sample t-test, two-sided

In an interview of 200 people in Australia, there is a 60% chance that the sample will get the vaccine. Of this sample, 40% want to get the Pfizer branded vaccine. Of these people, 75% of the sample want to get this in the next one month.What is the number of people who said that they will not take the Pfizer branded vaccine in the next one month?Group of answer choices3680Not determinable12

1/1

Upgrade your grade with Knowee

Get personalized homework help. Review tough concepts in more detail, or go deeper into your topic by exploring other relevant questions.