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Which of the following sets of characteristics would usually best describe an autoregressive process of order 3 (i.e., an AR(3))?Group of answer choicesA slowly decaying acf, and a pacf with 3 significant spikesA slowly decaying pacf and an acf with 3 significant spikesAn acf and a pacf with 3 significant spikesA slowly decaying acf and pacf

Question

Which of the following sets of characteristics would usually best describe an autoregressive process of order 3 (i.e., an AR(3))?Group of answer choicesA slowly decaying acf, and a pacf with 3 significant spikesA slowly decaying pacf and an acf with 3 significant spikesAn acf and a pacf with 3 significant spikesA slowly decaying acf and pacf

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Solution

The characteristics that would best describe an autoregressive process of order 3 (AR(3)) would be a slowly decaying autocorrelation function (acf), and a partial autocorrelation function (pacf) with 3 significant spikes.

Here's why:

  1. Autoregressive (AR) models are characterized by a slowly decaying autocorrelation function (acf). This is because each value in the series is a sum of weighted past values with some error, and this error propagates through the series, causing the slow decay in the acf.

  2. The order of an AR model is determined by the number of significant spikes in the partial autocorrelation function (pacf). This is because the pacf at lag k is the correlation that results after removing the effect of any correlations due to the terms at shorter lags. So, for an AR(3) model, we would expect to see 3 significant spikes in the pacf.

Therefore, the correct answer is "A slowly decaying acf, and a pacf with 3 significant spikes".

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