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Suppose you are in a room with 33 people. If you ignore leap years, what is the probability at least two of you share a birthday?(Round your answer to the nearest thousandths of a percent where needed.)

Question

Suppose you are in a room with 33 people. If you ignore leap years, what is the probability at least two of you share a birthday?(Round your answer to the nearest thousandths of a percent where needed.)

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Solution

This is a classic problem in probability theory, often called the "birthday paradox". The paradox is that the probability is much higher than most people intuitively expect.

Here's how to calculate it:

  1. Assume that birthdays are evenly distributed throughout the year, so each person has a 1/365 chance of being born on any particular day.

  2. Start by calculating the probability that everyone has a different birthday. For the first person, there are 365 possible days, so the probability that the next person doesn't share a birthday is 364/365. For the third person, the probability is 363/365, and so on.

  3. Multiply these probabilities together to get the overall probability that all 33 people have different birthdays. This is calculated as (365/365) * (364/365) * (363/365) * ... * (333/365).

  4. The probability that at least two people share a birthday is then 1 minus this number.

  5. To get the answer in percentage form, multiply by 100.

This calculation gives a result of approximately 76.040%. So, surprisingly, in a room of just 33 people, there's a 76.040% chance that at least two people share a birthday.

This problem has been solved

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