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At a certain auto parts manufacturer, the Quality Control division has determined that one of the machines produces defective parts 19% of the time. A random sample of 7 parts produced by this machine is chosen. Find the probability that at most 2 of these parts are defective.Do not round your intermediate computations, and round your answer to three decimal places.

Question

At a certain auto parts manufacturer, the Quality Control division has determined that one of the machines produces defective parts 19% of the time. A random sample of 7 parts produced by this machine is chosen. Find the probability that at most 2 of these parts are defective.Do not round your intermediate computations, and round your answer to three decimal places.

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Solution

To solve this problem, we can use the binomial probability formula. The binomial probability formula is given by:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nk P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}

where:

  • n n is the number of trials (in this case, 7 parts),
  • k k is the number of successes (defective parts),
  • p p is the probability of success on a single trial (0.19 for defective parts),
  • (nk) \binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, calculated as n!k!(nk)! \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} .

We need to find the probability that at most 2 parts are defective, which means we need to calculate the sum of the probabilities for 0, 1, and 2 defective parts.

  1. Calculate P(X=0) P(X = 0) : P(X=0)=(70)(0.19)0(0.81)7 P(X = 0) = \binom{7}{0} (0.19)^0 (0.81)^7 P(X=0)=11(0.81)7 P(X = 0) = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.81)^7 P(X=0)=(0.81)7 P(X = 0) = (0.81)^7 P(X=0)0.2097152 P(X = 0) \approx 0.2097152

  2. Calculate P(X=1) P(X = 1) : P(X=1)=(71)(0.19)1(0.81)6 P(X = 1) = \binom{7}{1} (0.19)^1 (0.81)^6 P(X=1)=70.19(0.81)6 P(X = 1) = 7 \cdot 0.19 \cdot (0.81)^6 P(X=1)=70.190.262144 P(X = 1) = 7 \cdot 0.19 \cdot 0.262144 P(X=1)0.3486848 P(X = 1) \approx 0.3486848

  3. Calculate P(X=2) P(X = 2) : P(X=2)=(72)(0.19)2(0.81)5 P(X = 2) = \binom{7}{2} (0.19)^2 (0.81)^5 P(X=2)=7!2!(72)!(0.19)2(0.81)5 P(X = 2) = \frac{7!}{2!(7-2)!} \cdot (0.19)^2 \cdot (0.81)^5 P(X=2)=210.03610.3764768 P(X = 2) = 21 \cdot 0.0361 \cdot 0.3764768 P(X=2)0.2851792 P(X = 2) \approx 0.2851792

Now, sum these probabilities to find the probability that at most 2 parts are defective:

P(X2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2) P(X \leq 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) P(X2)0.2097152+0.3486848+0.2851792 P(X \leq 2) \approx 0.2097152 + 0.3486848 + 0.2851792 P(X2)0.8435792 P(X \leq 2) \approx 0.8435792

Rounding to three decimal places, the probability that at most 2 parts are defective is:

P(X2)0.844 P(X \leq 2) \approx 0.844

This problem has been solved

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